An Aggregate Theory of International Payments Adjustment by H.Peter Gray

By H.Peter Gray

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Extra resources for An Aggregate Theory of International Payments Adjustment

Example text

C = PI.! PrJ, r where PI and PrJ, are, respectively, indices of prices of tradable goods and r is an index of the rate of exchange defined so that an increase in r represents an appreciation of the currency of the focus nation. In Figure 2-1, tastes and 'normal' levels of tariff protection are Balance of trade {+I T C«C? 4---t---------:::o(IC--------. C(>C? T Balance of trade (--I FIGURE 2-1 Competitiveness and the Trade Balance assumed to be given for the period in the absence of some balance-ofpayments policy.

S. 243-5 and in J. J. F. Staff Papers, 9 (July 1962) p. 151. 36 The Infrastructure dimensions in which the dominant goal can be defined will serve to measure changes in the net contribution to domestic employment, changes in the net international asset position, and changes in the net and in the gross liquid reserve positions. The short-run model explicitly excludes international transactions by the private sector in short-term assets and other internationallyliquid assets from its scope. This exclusion derives primarily from the belief that, while net reserve positions are acknowledged to be important, gross reserve positions and the distribution of the stock of international short-term assets among nations have little effect upon international economic policy.

THE SHORT-RUN MODEL The major dimensions of national economic policy can be defined quantitatively as desired numerical values for the target variables of employment rate and international payments. 36 The similar aggregative quality of the domestic and international target variables is itself an argument for treating both in the same analytic framework and, given the short-run actual or potential variability of the component variables, it is axiomatic that the short-run analysis that underlies macrostabilisation policy should also provide the foundation for the formulation of international payments adjustment policy.

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